Fred Wilson - Union Square Ventures
The Carlota Perez Framework
Fred (and his firm USV) is one of the most respected venture capitalists in the world today. His investments in the tech sector have been some of the best, and even those unfimilar with the industry will recognize a surprisingly large number of companies with they look through USV's portfolio. Fred has been focusing a lot on Bitcoin and blockchain technology lately, and this post of his was inspired by a combination of Perez's work on technology revolutions and a recent post* by William Mougayar on the potential for a bitcoin industry (not currency) bubble.
Key Points:
- Every surge of technological innovation is marked by two phases:
- Installation/Infrastructure - railways, server systems, the mining network
- Deployment/Adoption - development of the US west, adoption of the internet, ???
- We don't know where we are with Bitcoin, but history shows us that there will be a crash.
- There are three primary parties that could be affected by a crash
- Bitcoin price (definitely)
- Bitcoin companies (likely)
- Capital markets (less likely)
Wilson's Conclusion:
The best way to manage this scenario is to invest in the post-crash cycle. Go for the long term stability that adoption of a technology will offer. Carlota says "Nothing important happens without crashes"; play for the post-crash market.
Key Takeaway:
The short-term pre-crash market, in my opinion, is mining. Right now we're seeing a widespread crash in what was for a short time a very profitable business - large scale Bitcoin mining operations. Cloud mining is being shut down across the board and electricity costs are squeezing profitability.
We're seeing unparalleled investment in bitcoin companies (Xapo, Blockchain, Coinbase). This very well could be the time for a crash. The question is, who has played for the post-crash market? My moeny is on Coinbase.
*You can read my break down of Mougayar's post here